Passage Assessment
Will These Bonds Pass?
Historical passage rates, comparable elections, and risk factors for all four DFW jurisdictions on the May 2, 2026 ballot.
Methodology
Passage probability assessments are derived from a combination of historical Texas bond election data (2018–2025), comparable election outcomes in peer jurisdictions, jurisdiction-specific polling context where available, and structural factors including proposition category, bond size relative to tax base, and election timing. These are informed estimates, not predictions — actual outcomes depend on turnout, campaign dynamics, and voter sentiment closer to election day.State Bond Review Board
How Texas Bond Elections Work
Texas municipalities and school districts issue General Obligation bonds through voter-approved elections. A simple majority (50%+1) is required for passage. Bond propositions are typically grouped by category (streets, schools, parks) so voters can approve or reject each category independently.
May uniform elections tend to have lower turnout than November general elections, which historically favors passage — engaged supporters are more likely to vote in off-cycle elections.
What Drives Passage?
Historical data from Texas bond elections reveals several consistent patterns:
- Proposition category matters. Streets, public safety, and school facilities pass at the highest rates (85–95%). Parks and recreation are moderately strong. Housing and athletic facilities face the most resistance.
- Bond size relative to tax base. Jurisdictions with strong tax base growth and AAA/AA credit ratings pass bonds at higher rates. Voters are more comfortable when the per-household cost is modest relative to home values.
- May vs. November timing. May elections consistently produce lower turnout (5–12% in DFW), which historically favors passage because organized supporters are more likely to vote.
- Track record of delivery. Jurisdictions with visible, successful projects from prior bonds build voter confidence. Conversely, perceived waste or unfulfilled promises suppress passage rates.
- Campaign dynamics. Organized opposition, even if small, can defeat propositions in low-turnout elections. The presence or absence of active “Vote No” campaigns is a key swing factor.
Historical Passage Rates by YearState Bond Review Board
Historical passage rates by year and category
Passage Rates by Category
Not all proposition types pass at the same rate. Streets and public safety lead; athletic facilities and housing lag.
Comparable Texas Elections (2022–2025)
Texas city GO bonds passed at an average rate of ~82% from 2022–2025. Grand Prairie's per-capita ask ($1,521) falls below six recently successful comparables. Streets and public safety bonds almost never fail when properly structured.
| City | Year | Bond | Per Capita | Tax Impact | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Prairie TX | 2026 | $327M | $1,521 | +3.90¢ | May 2 |
| Garland TX | 2025 | $360M | $1,457 | No increase | 82.7% Yes |
| Arlington TX | 2025 | $201M | $505 | No increase | 73.9% Yes |
| Denton TX | 2023 | $291M | $1,968 | +5.76¢ | ~70% Yes |
| Sugar Land TX | 2024 | $350M | $2,966 | +5.0¢ | Passed |
| Corpus Christi TX | 2022/24 | $175M | $554 | No increase | Passed ×2 |
| McKinney TX | 2024 | $450M | $2,091 | — | 4 of 5 Yes |
| Laredo TX | 2025 | $417M | $1,585 | — | ~85% No |
May 2026 Jurisdiction Assessments
Dallas ISD
School bonds in Texas pass at 70-75% on average
- Largest school bond in TX history creates voter fatigue risk
- Strong PSF guaranty and low per-household cost
- 2020 bond accountability gaps may depress turnout
Fort Worth
Fort Worth's 2018 bond passed with strong margins
- $0 tax rate increase is strongest selling point
- Streets and public safety bonds have highest passage rates
- 177 BalancingAct submissions show community engagement
Grand Prairie
First bond since 2001 — no recent baseline
- 25-year bond gap creates institutional trust deficit
- AAA credit rating is strong fiscal credibility signal
- Laredo parallel: long gaps breed distrust
Arlington ISD
Arlington city bonds passed at 73.9% in 2025
- Low per-household cost ($1.50/month)
- CNSC community process builds buy-in
- Phase 5 deferral concerns from 2019 bond